ARK Invest has published an update on Tesla's 2026 price target. The firm believes that in five years, TSLA will be worth $4600 per share. The bull and bear cases show Tesla could be worth roughly $5800 and $2900 per share, respectively.

The new research update is based on ARK’s new open-source Tesla model, which incorporates distributions for 38 independent inputs to simulate a range of potential outcomes for the company.

Tesla’s prospective robotaxi business line is a key driver, contributing 60% of expected value and more than half of expected EBITDA in 2026. Across ARK's simulation set, the firm expects electric vehicles to constitute 57% of the company’s revenue in 2026, albeit at substantially lower margins than robotaxi revenue.

Autonomous Driving.
ARK's new model includes updated assumptions for the total market for autonomous ride-hail at each price point, as well as the probability that Tesla will solve for fully autonomous driving. Based on its analysis of consumers’ perceived value of time, the firm now expects more demand for autonomous ride-hail at higher price points than they had modeled originally. ARK estimates the total addressable market for autonomous ride-hailing at roughly $11 to 12 trillion.

Capital Efficiency Maximum Annual Production Increase.
ARK's updated model also increases Tesla's capital efficiency. Since 2017, Tesla’s capital expenditure per incremental unit of capacity has improved from $84000, when Model 3 was ramping, to $7700. In last year’s model, the firm estimated that Tesla would spend $6000 to $8000 per incremental unit of capacity in 2025. Given its much better than expected capital efficiency, ARK Invest now assumes that Tesla will spend $2000 to $7000 per incremental unit of capacity in 2026.

These improvements indicate that Tesla could continue to increase margins, and that capital is no longer a bottleneck limiting its growth. Instead, Tesla should be able to grow as quickly as management bandwidth and supply constraints will allow.

Forecast of 2026 Share Price.
The firm's simulation is highly sensitive to the year in which Tesla launches robotaxis. In many of ARK's lowest price-per-share scenarios, Tesla launches a vertically integrated, human-driven ride-hail service but does not launch a robotaxi network, as shown in light green. In some scenarios, Tesla does not launch either service, as shown in dark gray.

Importantly, human-driven ride-hail could become a profitable recurring revenue stream before Tesla launches a fully autonomous service. For cases in which Tesla launches a human-driven ride-hail service and solves for fully autonomous driving, the firm assumes that its human-driven ride-hail cars will transition to the autonomous ride-hail network over time. If it is unable to launch a robotaxi service within five years, Tesla still could launch a human-driven ride-hail while trying to solve for full autonomy. In many of ARK's higher price-per-share scenarios, Tesla launches a robotaxi network in the next two to three years.

Source: Re-posted and Summarized from Eva Fox at tesmanian.

My Take: Like I alwayssay. RoboTaxi and FSD will Make Tesla a 10 Trillion Dollar Company. Optimus, 100 Trillion.

Re Posted From: ARK Invest Sets Tesla Stock at 5800 In 2026

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ARK Invest has published an update on Tesla's 2026 price target. The firm believes that in five years, TSLA will be worth $4600 per share. The bull and bear cases show Tesla could be worth roughly $5800 and $2900 per share, respectively.

The new research update is based on ARK’s new open-source Tesla model, which incorporates distributions for 38 independent inputs to simulate a range of potential outcomes for the company.

Tesla’s prospective robotaxi business line is a key driver, contributing 60% of expected value and more than half of expected EBITDA in 2026. Across ARK's simulation set, the firm expects electric vehicles to constitute 57% of the company’s revenue in 2026, albeit at substantially lower margins than robotaxi revenue.

Autonomous Driving.
ARK's new model includes updated assumptions for the total market for autonomous ride-hail at each price point, as well as the probability that Tesla will solve for fully autonomous driving. Based on its analysis of consumers’ perceived value of time, the firm now expects more demand for autonomous ride-hail at higher price points than they had modeled originally. ARK estimates the total addressable market for autonomous ride-hailing at roughly $11 to 12 trillion.

Capital Efficiency Maximum Annual Production Increase.
ARK's updated model also increases Tesla's capital efficiency. Since 2017, Tesla’s capital expenditure per incremental unit of capacity has improved from $84000, when Model 3 was ramping, to $7700. In last year’s model, the firm estimated that Tesla would spend $6000 to $8000 per incremental unit of capacity in 2025. Given its much better than expected capital efficiency, ARK Invest now assumes that Tesla will spend $2000 to $7000 per incremental unit of capacity in 2026.

These improvements indicate that Tesla could continue to increase margins, and that capital is no longer a bottleneck limiting its growth. Instead, Tesla should be able to grow as quickly as management bandwidth and supply constraints will allow.

Forecast of 2026 Share Price.
The firm's simulation is highly sensitive to the year in which Tesla launches robotaxis. In many of ARK's lowest price-per-share scenarios, Tesla launches a vertically integrated, human-driven ride-hail service but does not launch a robotaxi network, as shown in light green. In some scenarios, Tesla does not launch either service, as shown in dark gray.

Importantly, human-driven ride-hail could become a profitable recurring revenue stream before Tesla launches a fully autonomous service. For cases in which Tesla launches a human-driven ride-hail service and solves for fully autonomous driving, the firm assumes that its human-driven ride-hail cars will transition to the autonomous ride-hail network over time. If it is unable to launch a robotaxi service within five years, Tesla still could launch a human-driven ride-hail while trying to solve for full autonomy. In many of ARK's higher price-per-share scenarios, Tesla launches a robotaxi network in the next two to three years.

Source: Re-posted and Summarized from Eva Fox at tesmanian.

My Take: Like I alwayssay. RoboTaxi and FSD will Make Tesla a 10 Trillion Dollar Company. Optimus, 100 Trillion.

Re Posted From: ARK Invest Sets Tesla Stock at 5800 In 2026

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